Market valuation · updated every 6 hours

Is the stock market cheap or expensive? One indicator gets you close.

The Buffett Indicator (market cap ÷ GDP) is the ratio Warren Buffett called “the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.” This page tracks it — and how confident regular investors are feeling — so you start with context, not a guess. Look first, decide after.

Open an account — about 10 minutes See the long view

Data as of 7 Aug 2026, 14:00 CEST

Buffett Indicator

214.1%

Expensive

Fear & Greed

60/100

Greed

US stock market

$69.5T

vs $32.5T GDP

The long view

The Buffett Indicator since 1947 — 79 years

Under 90% the market has historically been cheap — a good decade to keep buying. 90–140% is fair to rich. Over 140% it has been expensive — returns tend to be lower over the following years. This is a valuation gauge, not a timing tool. Pick a period, then tap or drag across the line to read any quarter.

Tap or drag across the chart to read any quarter · line colour follows the valuation zone

Source: FRED · US corporate equities at market value (Fed Z.1) ÷ US GDP · quarterly, 1947–2026 · updated 7 Aug 2026, 14:00 CEST. The dashed tail is an estimate for today: the last official quarter scaled by recent daily market moves, so the line doesn't stop months in the past. Each quarter shows what the ratio does not predict: next week or next year.

Seen the data? Act on it

Open an account in about 10 minutes

At 214.1% the market is expensive by history — that's an argument for starting small and regular, not for waiting on a crash that may never come. Below: four brokers ranked for low fees, an easy first account, and whether £50 a month is enough to begin.

We earn a commission if you open an account through these links, at no cost to you. It doesn't change the order of this list or what we say about a broker. We are not financial advisers, and nothing here is advice about your particular situation. Investing puts your capital at risk.

Our pick for beginners

Lightyear Your first account, without the noise Low fees, fractional shares, and accounts in EUR and GBP. £50 a month is a real start. London and Tallinn-based broker built explicitly for new European investors. It offers commission-free trading on thousands of US and EU stocks and ETFs, fractional shares from around €1, and a straightforward app that skips the wall-of-numbers approach. Funds are held with a regulated custodian, and it is covered by investor protection in the EU and UK. Fee 0% commission on most stock trades Best for First portfolio Regulated by EFSA (EU) · FCA (UK) Free to open · start with small amounts · leave any time Open account

Trading 212 Commission-free, EU and UK Stocks and ETFs with fractional shares, plus a practice account so you can try it first. One of the most popular retail brokers in Europe and the UK, authorized and regulated by the FCA. Its model is simple: zero-commission trading on US and EU stocks and ETFs, fractional shares, and a highly rated mobile app that supports everything from a first £10 investment to ISA accounts. The in-app practice mode is a genuinely good way to learn without risking anything. Fee 0% commission Best for Trying before you commit Regulated by FCA (UK) · CySEC (EU) Free to open · start with small amounts · leave any time Open account

DEGIRO The budget workhorse A huge range of markets with transparent, low fees — a European favourite. A Dutch broker (part of the publicly listed flatexDEGIRO group) and one of Europe's largest by trading volumes. DEGIRO's edge is breadth: access to roughly 50 exchanges across 30 countries in about 6,000 securities, at some of the lowest per-trade fees in Europe. It is regulated by the Dutch AFM/De Nederlandsche Bank, though without the classic zero-commission app polish. Fee From €1 per trade Best for Multi-country access Regulated by AFM & DNB (NL) Free to open · start with small amounts · leave any time Open account

Interactive Brokers For when you outgrow the basics Global markets and serious tools. Overkill for day one, useful by year two. A Nasdaq-listed global broker and one of the largest in the world, with access to markets in over 150 countries. EU clients are served through its Dublin entity under European regulation. Its research platform, low margin rates and institutional-grade order routing are best-in-class — and genuinely more than a beginner needs, which is why it suits investors who have already learned the ropes. Fee Low tiers + per-share Best for Serious investors Regulated by Central Bank of Ireland Free to open · start with small amounts · leave any time Open account

Not sure where to start? Any of the first three gets you going. Small and consistent beats big and occasional.

The Buffett Indicator

214.1% · Expensive

214.1%

Expensive

All US stocks ÷ US GDP. Under 90% cheap · 90–140% fair to rich · over 140% expensive. A valuation gauge, not a forecast.

Over 140% — expensive. Expect lower returns ahead. Keep the habit, widen the horizon.

Fear & Greed Index

60/100 · Greed

60/100

Greed

New here? Start like this

Three steps, ten minutes

Understand the mood

Check the Buffett Indicator chart and the Fear & Greed gauges on this page. They tell you if stocks are historically cheap or expensive — so you're not guessing.

Open a brokerage account

You don't need a fortune or even experience. European brokers like Lightyear, Trading 212 and DEGIRO let you open an account in minutes and start with tiny amounts.

Invest a little, on repeat

The boring part is the secret: small, regular, long-term investing into a diversified fund. The earlier you start, the more compounding does the work. Use the F.I.R.E. calculator below.

Your plan

F.I.R.E. calculator: when are you free?

Financial Independence, Retire Early. Plug in your numbers — real ones if you have them, estimates if not — and see the maths and the projection. Choose how you want to look at it.

When will I be free? Coast FIRE — am I there? Set the date

Your age

Currency

Already invested (today)

Monthly income (after tax)

Monthly contribution — whatever you'd miss least

Annual return (real, after inflation) 7.0%

Yearly spending outside investing

Retirement age you're coasting to

Freedom target age

Rough rules: ~7% is the long-run real return of global stocks, ~4% the classic safe withdrawal rate. Past performance is not a prediction.

Savings rate—

F.I.R.E. number—

Time to freedom—

Freedom age—

Portfolio F.I.R.E. target Today

You're 0% of the way there on day one.

The plan only works once it starts. Pick a broker and set up your monthly amount →

Illustration only. Results are estimates based on your inputs and historical assumptions. Investment returns vary and may be negative; your actual results will differ. This is not financial advice — see the full disclosure at the bottom of the page.

Daily Market Summary

Neutral

Generated 7 Aug 2026

Valuations High, Sentiment Leaning Greedy

The Buffett Indicator stands at 214.1%, placing overall US market valuation firmly in expensive territory by historical standards. Stock prices are stretched relative to the underlying economic output — a signal that long-run returns from today's levels have tended to be lower than average.

Meanwhile the Fear & Greed Index reads 59.6 — mild 'Greed' — so optimism, not anxiety, is driving activity. Worth remembering: readings like these say little about the next year, and for people investing small amounts regularly, consistency has historically mattered far more than the entry point.

Read the full market news

More market news: Reuters · Bloomberg · Yahoo Finance · MarketWatch

Not financial advice. This AI-generated summary is informational only — it is not advice, a recommendation, or a forecast. See the full disclosure at the bottom of this page.

Ready when you are

Pick a broker and start small

Same shortlist as above. Open an account when the chart has given you enough context — then keep contributions boring and regular.

Our pick for beginners

Any of the first three is a fine place to begin. Consistency beats the perfect broker.

Frequently Asked Questions

I'm new to investing — where do I even start?

Three steps, no shortcuts: (1) look at the Buffett Indicator and Fear & Greed Index above so you understand the current mood; (2) open a brokerage account with a beginner-friendly European broker — most are free, take minutes, and accept small amounts; (3) invest a small, regular amount into a diversified global ETF and keep doing it. Time in the market beats timing the market — that is the whole secret.

What is the Buffett Indicator?

The Buffett Indicator — also called the market cap to GDP ratio — compares the total value of all publicly traded US stocks to US gross domestic product (GDP). Warren Buffett called it "probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment."

How is the market cap to GDP ratio calculated?

It is total US stock market value divided by US nominal GDP, expressed as a percentage. This site uses the market value of US corporate equities from the Federal Reserve's Financial Accounts (FRED series NCBEILQ027S, in US dollars) divided by quarterly US nominal GDP. Because both inputs are real dollars on the same quarterly basis, no adjustment is needed. Historically the ratio averages around 80–100%, so readings well above 100% suggest the market is expensive relative to the economy.

What did Warren Buffett say about it?

In the 2001 Fortune article The Warren Buffett Way to Pick Stocks, Buffett said market value to GDP was "the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment," noting that when it fell well below 70% it was attractive, and warned when it climbed too far above 100%.

How does the Fear & Greed Index work?

CNN's Fear & Greed Index scores market sentiment from 0 (Extreme Fear) to 100 (Extreme Greed) using seven signals: stock price momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call options, junk bond demand, market volatility, and safe haven demand.

What are the limitations of these indicators?

Both are rough, backward-looking gauges, not buy or sell signals. GDP is reported quarterly and revised, so the ratio moves slowly. Fear & Greed is based on momentum. Neither accounts for interest rates, earnings, or future growth, and unusually high market valuations have persisted for years. This site is for information only and is not financial advice.

Important legal and risk disclosure

Not financial advice

Nothing on this site constitutes investment, legal, tax, or financial advice; nor is it a recommendation, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, asset, or product. The content is provided for general information and educational purposes only. You are solely responsible for your own investment decisions and their consequences.

Affiliate disclosure

Some links on this page are affiliate links. If you click one and open an account or make a purchase, we may receive a commission at no additional cost to you. This does not influence our content, which is provided independently. We do not accept payment for positive coverage. Please verify fees, terms, and availability with the provider directly.

Data & accuracy

Figures are compiled from third-party sources (FRED, CNN Fear & Greed) and may be delayed, revised, or incomplete. GDP is reported quarterly and frequently revised. Indicators are simplified proxies and can be calculated differently by other providers. Verify any figure before relying on it.

Risk warning

The value of investments can fall as well as rise, and you may get back less than you invest. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. If you are unsure, consult an authorised financial adviser. Products referenced may not be available or regulated in your jurisdiction.